Brighton vs West Ham, Sunday 4pm
West Ham still have plenty to play for and I’m not sure that is factored into the match prices in this one. I like the look of the away win at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Two points clear of West Ham but with an inferior goal difference, Manchester United (58 points) need to beat Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park to be assured of sixth and a spot in the Europa League group stages. The Hammers would rise a position if they win at the Amex Stadium and Man Utd fail to do likewise.
Whoever finishes seventh will play in the Europa Conference League, entering in the play-off round in August. That is a very fiddly start to a campaign before even factoring in the mammoth schedule of that particular competition, so David Moyes will be fully motivating his players to finish with a rattle.
Trust issues remain with Brighton, especially when they are favourites to win a home match. They have the fourth worst home record in the Premier League this season, albeit with the backdrop of some strong performance data. Burnley and Watford have scored more home goals than them this season. I’m sure Graham Potter’s men will ask questions and play some lovely stuff but when it comes to attacking ruthlessness and finishing ability in the box, I’m fully with the Hammers for this match up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: West Ham to win (7/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United, Sunday 4pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
You can only guarantee three things in this life: death, taxes and a goal-bonanza on the final day of a Premier League season.
From the last 12 Premier League final days, the goal per game ratio (3.28) always sails above the season average on the final day. Teams are more likely to play with a bit more freedom in a sunshine-filled no pressure environment. The final day also has the potential for a game to go into overdrive in terms of a scoreline. Remember Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth? Or Tottenham 5-4 Leicester four seasons ago? How about Hull City 1-7 Tottenham five years ago? This game could go down a similar path with such deadly attacking players on show.
And looking at the match prices, it’s absolutely worth adding a Crystal Palace win at 2/1 with Sky Bet to any goals-based bet. This is a Manchester United side that have taken just 11 points from their last 10 Premier League games but yet again are priced up favourites to win away from home.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Crystal Palace to win and over 3.5 goals (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Watford, Sunday 4pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The cries of “shoooooot” from the fans when a defender comes forward with the ball infuriate managers but that cry from the Chelsea end towards Antonio Rudiger should help land the best bet of the weekend.
Rudiger is Real Madrid bound having failed to agree new terms with Chelsea, yet leaves firmly a fan favourite and he’ll receive a warm send-off from the Chelsea fans. Such is his character, he’ll be looking to go out at the centre of attention so he makes plenty of appeal across his shots and goals markets against a Watford side that could well be on the end of a thumping.
Since Thomas Tuchel took charge of Chelsea, no centre-back has had more shots on goal in the Premier League than Rudiger (56). That average of 1.26 shots per 90 minutes always makes him a player to consider in the individual shots market especially at home to teams Chelsea are likely to dominate. That is the case here with the 5/4 with Sky Bet for him to have two or more shots at goal very appealing – as the three (4/1) and four lines (11/1).
The beauty with Rudiger is that not only is he a threat from set-pieces when venturing forward he also has the eye for the spectacular from range giving us two potential routes to profit. No centre-back has had more shots on goal than him from outside the box this season (20) – Everton’s Ben Godfrey is next in with 12. And since Tuchel has been in charge, eight of those have hit the target, working out an average of 0.19 per 90 minutes. That makes the 5/1 with Sky Bet for him to hit the target again from outside the box a very fair price without even factoring in the opposition and the end of season/final farewell type of occasion.
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger to have two or more shots (5/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Rudiger to have a shot on target from outside the area (11/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Leicester vs Southampton, Sunday 4pm
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s Southampton are burning out yet again.
Over the last three seasons during the months of February, March, April and May, Southampton have won just six of their 37 fixtures, losing 23. At this time of the season, Hasenhuttl’s side are relegation fodder and no wonder they tempted many punters in – myself included – at the start of this season to be relegated at juicy prices. They may end the season just two points clear of the drop zone so even though we haven’t really got a run for our money the early season analysis on them being overpriced wasn’t too far off. Next year could be the year to get them.
This Leicester team have the attacking flair to punish relegation level teams, scoring 14 goals in four fixtures against Norwich and Watford this season. Yes, they may ship a few going the other way in what should be a shackle-free match, but the price on a home win and plenty of goals should go close.
