Burnley vs Newcastle, Sunday 4pm
On what they have shown for large parts of this season Burnley deserve to go down. If you looked at the table every day between October 1 and April 22, you’d have seen Burnley in the bottom three. But here they are, peaking at the right time and they will avoid relegation if they match Leeds’ result.
And I think deep down these Burnley players know they are going to survive. That is the feeling I’ve got from watching them in the past few weeks. There is no tension in their play. No signs of panic. And even plenty of smiles on faces.
It’s that mentality that makes me believe they will get the result on Sunday. When they need to defend, they defend. And the big difference since Mike Jackson has taken over is their ability to create chances when the chips are down. Their expected goals data has rocketed from 1.1 per 90 minutes under Sean Dyche this season to 1.8 under Jackson. Home win it is.
Those looking for a bet should invest in the chances of Conor Roberts hitting a shot on target. It’s likely that Burnley will continue playing with a 3-5-2 and it’s certainly giving Roberts licence to roam down the right. He’s scored once, had three shots on target and is averaging just under two touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes since Jackson took over. His shot on target price at 9/4 with Sky Bet looks more than fair.
