Brentford vs Leeds, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
Jesse Marsch undoubtedly is a very smart man with a footballing brain that dwarves mine. Yet, there is just something about his style that tells me he’s just not the man to become a Leeds hero by leading them to a final-day great escape.
Leeds will have spent just 22 days in the relegation zone this season – only three teams in Premier League history have been relegated spending less than 28 days in the bottom three (Blackpool, Sunderland and Wimbledon).
This Leeds team do know how to fight though.
Only five teams have scored more goals in the final 10 minutes of games this season than them (10). As Marsch pointed out after the 1-1 draw with Brighton, this team dig themselves holes but does possess the resolve to get out of them. Only Manchester City (9) have scored more goals in the 90th minute than Leeds (7) in the Premier League this season, with all seven of their goals in this period being scored by different players.
So, there must be a good probability of Leeds scoring late in the final fixture of the season where everything is on the line for them and not much for Brentford. Profiting from such an angle is a tad fiddly but I was surprised to see odds-against available on Leeds scoring the last goal of the game at 6/5 with Sky Bet. In what is basically a two-horse race market – surely this one can’t end 0-0 – then the 45 per cent chance of Leeds scoring the last goal according to the odds available looks to underrate their chances.
